“ Clinical attack rates in children in La Gloria were twice that in adults (<15 years-of-age: 61%, ≥15: 29%). Three different epidemiological analyses gave R0 estimates in the range 1.4-1.6, while a genetic analysis gave a central estimate of 1.2. This range of values is, consistent with 14 to 73 generations of human-to-human transmission having occurred in Mexico to late April. Transmissibility is therefore substantially higher than seasonal flu, and comparable with lower estimates of R0 obtained from previous influenza pandemics.
メヒコでのR_0(基本再生産数)とCFR(症例致命率)がでた。ScienceのExpressペーパーである。
1.4＜＝R_0＜＝1.6, 0.3＜＝CFR＜＝1.5. 15歳未満はそれ以上に比べて、2倍の発病率。感染性は季節性インフルエンザより高いけれど、以前のパンデミックインフルエンザほどではない。
だいたいこれで落ち着きそうですな。もうそろそろ過剰反応が収まればいいけれど。
(via kashino)
3 years ago • 2 notes
